Fantasy Basketball 2022-23: Players you don’t want to draft

One of the key ingredients to having a successful and enjoyable fantasy basketball season on Fantrax is mitigating risk and uncertainty at the top of the draft. Having one of your best players underperforming or unavailable will completely ruin a season. The draft is a wonderful opportunity to leave that headache to one of your teammates. Here are some top players you’d love to have on your real-life team, but you might be better off looking elsewhere in fantasy basketball.

What?! Your fantasy basketball league was not hosted on Fantrax? Inconceivable! Discover all the features of Fantrax Fantasy Basketball Commissioner and we are sure that you will agree with our way of thinking.

The Do-Not-Drafts of the 2022-23 basketball season

Luka Doncic

ADP: 4.5

Fan favorite Luka Doncic has been significantly overdrawn in each of his four NBA seasons. And season five looks no different – ​​Doncic’s ADP of 4.5 on Fantrax would need to see an unforeseen improvement in stats from his previous seasons to be justified. Not only is the unforeseen improvement unlikely, but any improvement could be given the stagnation in production since its second season.

Season 8 cats per game ranking Total ranking of 8 cats 9 cats per game ranking Total ranking of 9 cats
2018-19 73 79 132 131
2019-20 14 14 32 29
2020-21 22 13 51 42
2021-22 16 21 35 44

Doncic’s elite contribution in points and assists is nearly matched by his low FG% and turnovers. Even if he ignored them, the relative lack of steals and assists would still keep him out of the elite group of fantasy players.

2018-19 16.5 0.427 2.3 6.7 0.713 7.8 6 1.1 0.3 3.4 21.2
2019-20 20.6 0.463 2.8 9.2 0.758 9.4 8.8 1 0.2 4.3 28.8
2020-21 20.5 0.479 2.9 7.1 0.73 8 8.6 1 0.5 4.3 27.7
2021-22 21.6 0.457 3.1 7.5 0.744 9.1 8.7 1.2 0.6 4.5 28.4

For the price he’ll get in the draft, you’ll want him on someone else’s team.

Alternatives to consider at ADP: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum

james lebron

ADP: 13.2

LeBron James will be the league’s fourth-oldest player in the 22-23 season. The regular aging curve obviously doesn’t apply to him, but his ability to lead a fantastic team through an 82-game season is questionable. And carrying the team is what you should expect from a player taken at his ADP of 13.2. A draft pick that high would be better spent on a safer player.

Worse still, James has missed the fantasy playoffs in 3 of the last 4 seasons. If the Lakers aren’t in playoff contention, don’t expect James to play. If the Lakers have clinched a playoff spot, don’t expect James to play.

Alternatives to consider at ADP: Devin Booker, LaMelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton

Jimmy Butler

ADP: 31.1

On a per-game basis, Butler has earned the fantastic first-round pick for most of his career. However, since leaving the Chicago Bulls in 2017, he has missed an average of 20 regular season games over the five seasons. A pick in the 30s might not seem too high to take a flyer, but there’s no advantage here – he’ll play hard in the games he plays and be happy to miss the ones he has to miss. to prepare for the real-life playoffs. Ultimately, Butler can’t be counted on to play his full weekly fantasy schedule.

Alternatives to consider at ADP: Donovan MitchellFred VanVleet, Darius Garland

Kawhi Leonard

ADP: 47.2

Leonard is back in basketball after missing nearly 16 months with a torn ACL. And the seasons before the ACL injury weren’t so healthy either.

Season 8 cats per game ranking Total ranking of 8 cats 9 cats per game ranking Total ranking of 9 cats
2016-17 seven seven 3 6
2017-18 31 361 24 348
2018-19 9 17 6 15
2019-20 4 seven 4 seven
2020-21 8 15 6 seven

Two of his last six seasons have been completely ruined by injuries, but the other four look great. Now what? He’s going to be rusty to start the season, he’ll be managed in shambles, has significant injury risk and can’t be counted on for the fantasy playoffs. If all of that is acceptable and your league parameters are favorable with IR spots, daily roster changes and no playoffs, then with the 47th pick, Kawhi Leonard may be worth the risk. The option for more peace of mind would be to not write it.

Alternatives to consider at ADP: Jaylen Brown, Scottie Barnes, Desmond Scourge

Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr., Keegan Murray

Top rookies rarely play up to their ADPs. Perhaps the excitement over their careers in general leads people to have unrealistic expectations for their rookie seasons.

The number one picks in particular have a very uneven record:

Season #1 Choose 8 cats per game ranking Total ranking of 8 cats 9 cats per game ranking Total ranking of 9 cats
2016-17 Ben Simmons (missed season, next season data) 39 22 61 45
2017-18 Markelle Fultz 363 414 400 426
2018-19 Deandre Ayton 36 35 29 30
2019-20 Sion Williamson 159 294 212 314
2020-21 Anthony Edwards 110 70 131 91
2021-22 Cade Cunningham 54 62 96 112

And choosing the best fantasy recruit doesn’t seem as simple as you might think:

Season Top rookie Drafted at Total ranking of 9 cats
2016-17 Malcolm Brogdon Round 2, pick 36 84
2017-18 Jayson Tatum Round 1, choice 3 40
2018-19 Deandre Ayton Round 1, Choose 1 30
2019-20 brandon clark Round 1, choice 21 67
2020-21 Tyrese Haliburton Round 1, choice 12 60
2021-22 Franz Wagner Round 1, choice 8 49

That’s not to say rookies shouldn’t be drafted at all, but the most profitable suggestion here would be to watch those under the radar at the end of the draft or watch the waiver feed for the first two weeks of the season.

For a more in-depth analysis, check out our complete 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!

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